40% seems wildly low, but we should know when we get the March numbers in a couple weeks whether the first two months of the year were unrepresentative or not.
App Stores here:
Whenever I see a prediction like this:
"According to data from IHS iSuppli, Apple will dominate the competition through 2014, when it will retain 60 percent of the market." I get curious about things like, yeah, and who will have the other 40%? The answer iSuppli is offering is Android in the 2nd slot.
I have mixed feelings about iSuppli. They certainly collect the relevant data. Some of what they do in producing projections strikes me as silly -- it's conservative in a defensive corporate sense, thus, overestimating the likelihood that a new player is a genuine threat, underestimating the likelihood of meaningful technological change in the short- to medium term, things like that. Think: bean counter paranoia and you are not far off. But they don't strike me as foolish, the way some commentators do.
Here is Sarah Rotman Epps explaining why the Android options won't be hurting iPad2 this year, unless Amazon enters the fray. I worry a lot when a not-even-announced-possibly-fantasy-product is treated as a more serious issue than real products. OTOH, it's not like the Galaxy Tab has taken off like a rocket.
I think the crucial information is something we won't have until June when the new rules take effect in the App Store, if I understand them correctly. If in order to have a kindle app on the iPad, Amazon must offer books for sale through the iPad with 30% going to Apple (and similar for everyone else), I could readily foresee a summer of vituperation as a three-way clusterfuck develops between Apple, users, and Netflix-Amazon-Sony-etc. who decide to pull their apps because the rules got too ridiculous.
I don't know. It's really hard to predict what Apple and/or Steve Jobs is capable of. They've worked miracles and they've (nearly) destroyed themselves too often to make any guess a probable one.
ETA: I guess another possible outcome might be pressure to take DRM off so you can buy books at Amazon and read them in a 3rd party reader that -does not- sell anything anywhere. That sounds so amazingly cool it feels unlikely.