walkitout (walkitout) wrote,
walkitout
walkitout

unemployment numbers

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/why-unemployment-probably-wont-hit-10.html

Not so very long ago, the "little green shoots" that the White House said they saw were being roundly mocked as people oh-woe-alack-and-alas'd about 10% unemployment being in our near future, and the possibility of a "double dip" recession.

This entry by Nate Silver (he of the sausage school of understanding politics) is interesting, partly because it's tightly focused on the numbers while understanding the flaws in those numbers, and partly because Mr. Silver is not prone to Doom! Doom!, which I love, but which I also recognize this not necessarily representative of Actual Reality.

I will also note that I've been feeling ridiculously optimistic in many ways for the last several months (when thinking about economic stuff), lately, I've been experiencing an unshakable sense of impending doom that has no content to it at all. It's important to point out that I'm a _really good_ contrarian indicator.

Of course it's way too late to exploit this in terms of timing the stock market, which has been rallying like crazy (on low volumes, true, but the price is the price).
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