walkitout (walkitout) wrote,

Wasting time playing games and listening to Bloomberg TV

Obvs, it's nonstop why did the market go up after FOMC? Why did it go down today?

Let's ignore that. There was someone ("I'm a credentialed economist. I can prove this to you." Srsly.) claiming that there just HAD to be a high end surprise on inflation and thus hikes next year. Argument came down to, "I think that $45/barrel of oil is a conservative estimate for the end of next year." plus Wage Pressure Will Finally Occur It Has To.

This is an interesting argument, and clearly, the Fed has gone over all the data he has (because he's basing his conclusions off THEIR BEIGE BOOK). The interviewer gently (they are always so gentle) pointed out that he failed to consider which members of the committee would be voting over the course of next year and which dots on the chart corresponded to them and thus what the actual rubber meets the road estimate of next year's inflation was. (He had not factored in who votes next year. *head desk* Might be an economist. Isn't a politician of any sort.) But in no way did this redirect him. He CANNOT IMAGINE wage pressure not getting worse over the next year.

Let us ignore, for the moment, how many happy dances we will all be doing should inflation actually creep up to 2% next year. How much more possible it will be for people to borrow and thus spend. How lovely it would be for workers to be paid more. How lovely it would be for more people to have jobs who want jobs. (Because his paranoid vision of It's Worse Than You Think is actually GRAND news for the economy. He's got a bankrupt system of morals -- hey, he's a trained economist! -- and lives in upside down world.) We will ignore all that.

Instead, let us contemplate how you could reduce unemployment and NOT have wage pressure. *a quiet moment for you to think about it* Here, I'll give you a hint.


Basically, the workforce has been aging for a while now. And the Great Recession aggravated that. Should the older workers feel comfortable retiring, and the younger folk who want jobs be hired to replace them, it is quite conservative to assume that the younger workers will be paid quite a lot less than the older, experienced, etc. workers who they replace.

And thus, wage pressure is significantly attenuated by a trend that is all but inevitable and has, in fact, been widely predicted.


ETA: I ignored his $45/barrel prediction, because I've already discussed oil pricing in the context of Worrying About OK Earthquakes -- no, not okay earthquakes. Oklahoma earthquakes. Everyone wants oil to stay cheap. Thus, we will overproduce to keep it cheap. Thus, there will be no price turnaround until we get better behavior out of the people we are punishing. We are -- surprisingly! -- a patient people. This could go on for a while. I would say I'm not sure why he doesn't understand it, however, I have already observed that he is no kind of politician. So never mind.
Tags: economics
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