walkitout (walkitout) wrote,
walkitout
walkitout

What Can We Conclude From This Comparison? WDW and the economy edition

I have already noted in some trip reports that I got sort of screwed this year. We based our planning on crowd predictions that were revised upward the day we arrived in Florida, and then ultimately still undershot the reality. TouringPlans is not unaware of what happened.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/11/18/disney-world-crowd-calendar-report-november-8-to-14-2015/

"Again last week we saw record breaking wait times for this time of year. On Monday for example, At Magic Kingdom we saw a crowd level ‘9’. The same day last year was a crowd level ‘1’."

The Monday being discussed was November 9, 2015; the weather was in the 80s, with a low in the mid 80s and a high of 90.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORL/2015/11/9/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Orlando&req_state=FL&req_statename=Florida&reqdb.zip=32801&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

The previous year's weather:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORL/2015/11/9/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Orlando&req_state=FL&req_statename=Florida&reqdb.zip=32801&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

Solidly 60s, never breaking to 70 degrees.

While obvs the Florida unemployment rate for November is not yet available, the unemployment rate for September 2014 can be compared to the unemployment rate for September 2015: 6.2 vs. 53. (Have fun digging around in this! http://www.floridajobs.org/labor-market-information/data-center/statistical-programs/local-area-unemployment-statistics.)

A glance at the calendar says that in 2015, November 9 was on a MONDAY, whereas in 2014, it was on a SUNDAY.

To sum up: lower visitation on a cold weekend day with higher statewide unemployment; higher visitation on a warm to hot weekday with lower statewide unemployment. Both dates fell within Food and Wine. Both dates fell within the school year.

Factors increasing visitation: higher temperatures, lower unemployment in Florida.
Factors decreasing visitation: Monday vs. Sunday

You actually _can_ argue that Mondays are busier than Sundays at WDW -- people have -- but it always makes me chuckle when people make that argument, so, you know, I'm gonna laugh at you. (People have also tried to argue that Sundays are busier than Saturdays; again, ha ha ha ha ha.)

We've been going to WDW since Xmas week 2009 (I think). We've been going twice a year since 2012 (I think). While we don't always go at exactly the same time of year, we've been going during the first half of November for most of that time, and our spring trip is usually, but not always, during April vacation break. I feel like by this point, we have a pretty good "feel" for what the place feels like during the times that we are there. And this year, I feel like we turned a hockey stick corner.

It's time for the Fed to start raising rates. Not by much. Not very fast. Just 25 basis points at a time, to reassure everyone that, yes, the economy is healthy enough to start crawling off of Zero. Not only do I believe this won't in any way discourage lending to the consumers who could really benefit from easier access to credit. It think it will _encourage_ lending to those consumers, because we'll finally be able to convince ourselves there is a path forward.

ETA: Map of unemployment in the US by state.

http://www.businessinsider.com/october-2015-state-unemployment-rates-map-2015-11
Tags: economy
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