The fed is not stupid. And they _are_ prepared to overshoot, because, they are not stupid.
Don't believe things that imply that the fed is stupid.
I am _particularly_ satisfied with this paragraph:
"When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."
EVEN AFTER inflation at/near 2%, "economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run".
It is extremely difficult to get this message across apparently.
ETA: Typo in the subject line. Wow. Two snow days in a row and my brain rots.
This is CR's post on net equity extraction last month.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that we'll see the Fed raise rates right around the time that number turns positive.