I, personally, had figured on something to happen by around midnight tonight, but news coverage suggests that nothing is happening, so, probably nothing is going to happen tonight. I suck at these kinds of guesses.
Nate Silver weighed in, despite being in silent mode until early 2014:
It's a long-ish piece, and it's Nate Silver so obviously you are going to read it, right? Well, if not, among other things, he said (dated 10/10):
"if the current round of negotiations is resolved within the next week or so, they might turn out to have a relatively minor impact by November 2014."
I'd like to be able to say, definitively, when would be an appropriate time to panic. I don't think yet.
There is some activity on the Senate side.
I feel like we're all going to be a little surprised by how this turns out.