?

Log in

No account? Create an account

Previous Entry | Next Entry

Demographic Projections

This is really long, but really excellent:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/04/lawler-updated-population-projections.html

Have a little teaser:

"Unfortunately, the last official Census population projection available to the public was released in late 2014 (and its “starting point” was the “vintage 2013” population estimate), and since then (1) “actual” population growth has been significantly lower than these projections, and (2) the outlook for population growth has changed drastically. As such, the latest available “official” Census population projections are not very useful to analysts or policymakers, and any economic/housing/other forecasts based on these outdated population projections is of little use as well."

Lawler looks at the Census 2014 projections as a definitely wrong "base case" and then does a "seat of the pants" projection of a "Sorta Trumpy" scenario and a "Really Trumpy" scenario -- the latter is remarkable for how little the labor force grows in a "Really Trumpy" scenario, and household formation is significantly impacted as well.

I really enjoyed reading this post, and look forward to more along the same lines which I anticipate will show up at Calculated Risk in the future. A "Really Trumpy" scenario would imply -- to me, anyway -- incredibly slow growth for the indefinite future.